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When browsing Taiwan news, readers from both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the three places often feel: "Another election?"
From 2020 to 2026, Taiwan will have major elections, recalls or referendums almost every year, except for 2023, when there is no major vote. Some scholars describe Taiwanese politicians as often in "election mode."
Foreign studies show that frequent voting may lead to voting fatigue. But Taiwan seems to be an exception. Recent polls show that due to the "ocean current" effect of local elections on November 28, the turnout rate in Taipei is expected to exceed 70%.
Analysts pointed out that in recent years, the opposition camp has used "referendums tied to general elections" to boost turnout. However, with repeated referendums on the same issue, this year's referendum has limited effect on warming the election.
Political scientists told BBC Chinese that the turnout in this election is expected to be high because both the ruling and opposition camps hope to use a victory to prove their mandate from public opinion and break Taiwan's current political deadlock.
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Six major votes in seven years
In the past seven years, there have been elections, recalls or referendums almost every year in Taiwan. Only in 2023 there will be no large-scale vote (see table).
Wang Hongen, associate professor of the Department of Political Science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, told BBC Chinese that frequent voting has caused Taiwanese politicians to often be in an "election mode" and often rush to respond when faced with different issues. Behind this is the fear of harming or supporting votes.
"When making political attacks, defenses and speeches, the impact on future votes will be considered, and it will also make the outside world feel that politicians are always electing or preparing for elections."
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He explained that elections were more frequent in Taiwan in the early days of lifting martial law because public officials at all levels were elected separately. Since then, some elections have been gradually consolidated and the number of votes has also been reduced.
In the current Taiwan election cycle, without additional voting, there is a major election every two years. For example, after the local "nine-in-one" elections in 2026, the presidential and legislative elections will be held in 2028, and the two elections will be held alternately.
However, in the past seven years, Taiwan has held more and more votes outside the fixed cycle, including four referendums in 2021, a general recall and a nuclear power referendum in 2025.
On November 28, Taiwan held a nine-in-one election and a referendum on the "Abolition of a Non-Nuclear Homeland" on the same day. For example, a resident living in a municipality such as Taipei needs to receive four votes, including votes for mayor, city councilor, village chief, and referendum.
If you are a resident of a county, you have 6 votes, including county magistrate, county councilor, township mayor, township citizen representative, village chief and referendum.
"Ocean current" drives up voter turnout?
Will Taiwanese voters suffer from voter fatigue if they vote frequently?
Voting fatigue, also known as voter fatigue, refers to the phenomenon that voters become tired of facing frequent elections and voting in a short period of time, thereby reducing their willingness to vote or political participation.
Research by political economist Sebastian Garmann in 2017 found that when the interval between an election and the previous election is short, the turnout rate in the latter election will be significantly reduced. This effect mainly occurs within about three months between the two elections.
However, recent polls in Taiwan show that voters are highly motivated to vote in local elections. The newly established Taipei Cross-Strait Research Association released data from multiple counties and cities. 92.6% of Taipei City voters said they would go to vote (79.7% would definitely go, 12.9% might go); New Taipei City's rate was 82.4% (65.1% would definitely go, 17.3% might go); Taichung City's rate was 84.0% (67.1% would definitely go, 16.9% might go). The association stated that it would conduct a Kaohsiung poll before the election, but as of November 4, no relevant press conference had been held.
Dai Li'an, the Taiwanese polling expert in charge of the investigation, said at a press conference on October 20 that the epicenter of the "ocean current" triggered by the Democratic Progressive Party's Taipei mayoral candidate Shen Boyang is in Taipei, and local voters' voting willingness is "very hot and rare."
After cross-analysis of the poll, the proportion of people of all ages who said they would definitely go to vote exceeded 70%. It can be estimated that the turnout rate this time will exceed 70%, which is very similar to the Taipei City public turnout rate in the 2020 presidential election.
Data show that in the 2018 and 2022 local elections, the average turnout rates for municipal mayor elections were 66.1% and 59.86% respectively. If the turnout this time exceeds 70%, it will be a rare high turnout in recent years.
Liu Jiawei, a professor at the Department of Public Administration and Policy at National Taipei University, told BBC Chinese that no voting fatigue has been observed in Taiwan. One of the reasons is the current political deadlock. Both the ruling and opposition camps hope to take the lead through local elections. It is expected that both parties will still actively mobilize to ultimately increase turnout.
"The current political situation is very stagnant. The ruling party cannot push anything they want to push, and the opposition parties cannot push anything they want to push... The 2026 (election) is a field where we can still compete with each other."
Can "referendum tied to general election" boost turnout?
This year's nine-in-one local elections are tied to a referendum on "abolition of a non-nuclear homeland", which is seen as a strategy by the opposition camp to boost turnout.
Lin Jiahe, associate professor at the Law School of Taiwan National Chengchi University, told BBC Chinese that the opposition Kuomintang and People's Party revised the "Referendum Law" in 2025 to bind the referendum to the general election, making the referendum a tool for electoral mobilization. "Using referendums (issues) to solidify my base or attract people who might not otherwise vote for me but are interested in my issues."
He gave an example. In 2018, Taiwan's opposition camp proposed a referendum on same-sex marriage, which was tied to the local elections that year. Some voters who originally supported the Democratic Progressive Party but opposed same-sex marriage changed their voting decisions because of the referendum issue.
Data show that the DPP was defeated in the election that year, and the KMT won more than two-thirds of the local seats.
Wang Wei-bang, an associate professor in the Department of Sociology at Tunghai University in Taiwan, studied the 2018 local election data and found that the KMT vote base and the "anti-gay" party vote base support each other or overlap. However, the older generation of the Democratic Progressive Party is highly "anti-gay", and the votes of the green camp may not be effectively transferred to the votes of the equal rights party. He pointed out that the DPP dealt with the issue of same-sex marriage almost in a shelved manner, which, with the benefit of hindsight, was tantamount to causing an electoral backlash.
Lin Jiahe analyzed that this way of binding the referendum to the general election prevents groups that oppose the referendum issue from calling on voters to adopt the strategy of "stay at home" and refuse to receive votes, thus driving up the referendum turnout in disguise. "No one will even choose the mayor because they don't want to vote in the referendum. This is exactly Blue and White's strategy, which is to force you to come out."
This year, the opposition camp originally proposed three major referendum proposals. Among them, "increasing whipping into law" and "exclusively using traffic fines" were rejected by the Central Election Commission, leaving only "abolition of non-nuclear homeland". This is another vote on nuclear power issues after the 2025 "Restart Nuclear III" referendum.
Poll expert Dai Li'an pointed out that Taiwan has held many nuclear energy referendums in the past, and raising similar issues this year will not help heat up the election. "The marginal effects of so many nuclear energy referendums are becoming increasingly diminishing and ineffective. What's more, both the government and the opposition now seem to agree that nuclear power generation is inevitable for Taiwan's future."
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Reasons for high turnout
Taiwanese voters have always been seen as keen to vote, but there have been low turnout rates in the past.
Research by Wu Baijun, a doctoral student in the Department of Political Science at Taiwan's National Chengchi University, pointed out that if the referendum is not held on the same day as the general election, the turnout will drop significantly. For example, if four referendums are held separately in 2021, the turnout will drop to 41%.
In comparison, the 10 referendums held in Taiwan in 2018 were tied to nine-in-one local elections on the same day, and the referendum turnout reached a maximum of 55.89%. The difference in the total number of voters between the two referendums was nearly 2 million.
Wu Baijun told BBC Chinese that research has found that after referendums are decoupled from general elections, the higher the proportion of young people in areas, the more obvious the decline in referendum turnout will be. He believes that voters will consider the cost of voting, including the cost of transportation back to their hometown to vote, understanding the referendum topic and voting content, etc.
He pointed out that based on the data of recent referendums, it is relatively certain that when a referendum is held on the same day as a general election, the turnout will be higher than when the referendum is held separately (see table), but it may be too early to say that Taiwan has experienced voting fatigue.
He believes that one of the reasons why Taiwanese voters maintain a relatively high turnout is the fierce competition among political parties, and the election also has national identity and unification and independence issues, which increases voters' motivation to participate in voting. "Even if voting is frequent, as long as voters feel that this election is important, they will still be willing to come out and vote."
Scholar Liu Jiawei pointed out that in the current atmosphere of fierce competition between blue and green, voters have a high willingness to vote. For example, even if the 2025 general recall vote is immediately followed by the 2024 presidential election, voters are still willing to go out to vote. "Those who want to recall really want to remove him (the legislator), but he who opposes the recall does not say anything, but he still goes out to vote because he feels that a large-scale recall is unreasonable."
Political scientist Wang Hongen analyzed that voting has become a collective habit of Taiwanese people. Going out or returning home to vote on voting day is a "life ritual" recognized by the people and is the reason for maintaining high voting rates for a long time.
"Through this ceremony, we demonstrate to ourselves and the world that Taiwan is a democratic society, so no matter what the voting result is, the Taiwanese people cherish their vote."
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