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First modification: 03/04/2026 - 18:10

The attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran not only increase military tension in the Middle East, but also put the stability of the world economy at risk. Threats against strategic energy infrastructure and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz fully impact global oil and gas trade. This is the topic of analysis in The France 24 Debate.

Iran, OPEC's fourth largest producer, responded to the bombings with attacks on energy targets in the region, including facilities linked to Saudi Aramco in Saudi Arabia and the company QatarEnergy, responsible for about 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas. Added to this is the announcement by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard about the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

This maritime passage, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, is a vital artery for the global economy: around 20% of the oil consumed in the world, 25% of liquefied natural gas and a third of urea, the most widely used fertilizer internationally, transit through it.

Read alsoStrait of Hormuz: where oil and geopolitics come together

In The France 24 Debate we analyze to what extent this escalation can become a catastrophe for the global economy.

For professor and maritime consultant Joel Grau, the Strait of Hormuz is a key artery for international markets, especially in Asia.

"A large part of the international markets are supplied through the Strait of Hormuz, especially the Asian ones: India and, especially, China. The situation in the Persian Gulf and in the strait directly affects them."

Grau emphasizes that the interruption in this maritime passage immediately impacts those economies highly dependent on energy supply. However, it raises the need to evaluate alternative routes, such as oil pipelines that flow into the Red Sea.

“These pipelines could take between 5 and 12 million barrels a day, compared to the 20 million that transit through Hormuz, but they could work as a temporary solution.”

For his part, Emilio Apud, former Secretary of Energy and Mining of Argentina, explains that the current increase in the price of oil does not respond only to the classic logic of supply and demand, but to the perception of risk in the markets.

"In the event of any doubt regarding supply, the value rises as a precaution, based on speculation."

Apud warns that the first impact is reflected in the price of fuel, with direct effects on the cost of living. In addition, it points out possible pressures on the exchange rate, with a rising dollar and on interest rates, although it considers that this would be a temporary phenomenon.

Our correspondent Catalina Gómez Ángel reports on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the attacks on Iran and its possible effects on 20% of the world's crude oil and the global economy.

Analysts agree that this is not the first time that geopolitics and energy are intertwined, in this case "the future of the Strait of Hormuz will be decisive not only for the Middle East, but for the stability of global markets."

The question now is whether the tension will translate into a prolonged crisis or a temporary rearrangement with economic costs. Which way will the balance tip?

From Cork in Ireland and in Buenos Aires, Argentina they join us in the analysis:

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